Efficacy of corticosteroid treatment for hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19: a multicentre study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of corticosteroids in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: A multicentre observational study was performed from 22 February through 30 June 2020. We included consecutive adult patients with severe COVID-19, defined as respiratory rate ≥30 breath per minute, oxygen saturation ≤93% on ambient air or arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ≤300 mm Hg. We excluded patients being treated with other immunomodulant drugs, receiving low-dose corticosteroids and receiving corticosteroids 72 hours after admission. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality from hospital admission. The main exposure variable was corticosteroid therapy at a dose of ≥0.5 mg/kg of prednisone equivalents. It was introduced as binomial covariate in a logistic regression model for the primary endpoint and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. RESULTS: Of 1717 patients with COVID-19 evaluated, 513 were included in the study, and of these, 170 (33%) were treated with corticosteroids. During hospitalization, 166 patients (34%) met the criteria of the primary outcome (60/170, 35% in the corticosteroid group and 106/343, 31% in the noncorticosteroid group). At multivariable analysis corticosteroid treatment was not associated with lower 30-day mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.20-1.74; p 0.33). After inverse probability of treatment weighting, corticosteroids were not associated with lower 30-day mortality (average treatment effect, 0.05; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.09; p 0.12). However, subgroup analysis revealed that in patients with PO2/FiO2 < 200 mm Hg at admission (135 patients, 52 (38%) treated with corticosteroids), corticosteroid treatment was associated with a lower risk of 30-day mortality (23/52, 44% vs. 45/83, 54%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.04-0.90; p 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: The effect of corticosteroid treatment on mortality might be limited to critically ill COVID-19 patients.

Development and validation of a prediction model for severe respiratory failure in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a multicentre cohort study (PREDI-CO study).

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to predict severe respiratory failure (SRF) among patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We performed a multicentre cohort study among hospitalized (>24 hours) patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from 22 February to 3 April 2020, at 11 Italian hospitals. Patients were divided into derivation and validation cohorts according to random sorting of hospitals. SRF was assessed from admission to hospital discharge and was defined as: Spo2 <93% with 100% Fio2, respiratory rate >30 breaths/min or respiratory distress. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of SRF, ß-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Trial Registration NCT04316949. RESULTS: We analysed 1113 patients (644 derivation, 469 validation cohort). Mean (±SD) age was 65.7 (±15) years, 704 (63.3%) were male. SRF occurred in 189/644 (29%) and 187/469 (40%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. At multivariate analysis, risk factors for SRF in the derivation cohort assessed at hospitalization were age ≥70 years (OR 2.74; 95% CI 1.66-4.50), obesity (OR 4.62; 95% CI 2.78-7.70), body temperature ≥38°C (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.30-2.29), respiratory rate ≥22 breaths/min (OR 3.75; 95% CI 2.01-7.01), lymphocytes ≤900 cells/mm3 (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.60-4.51), creatinine ≥1 mg/dL (OR 2.38; 95% CI 1.59-3.56), C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/dL (OR 5.91; 95% CI 4.88-7.17) and lactate dehydrogenase ≥350 IU/L (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.11-5.11). Assigning points to each variable, an individual risk score (PREDI-CO score) was obtained. Area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.89 (0.86-0.92). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 71.6% (65%-79%), 89.1% (86%-92%), 74% (67%-80%) and 89% (85%-91%), respectively. PREDI-CO score showed similar prognostic ability in the validation cohort: area under the receiver-operator curve 0.85 (0.81-0.88). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 80% (73%-85%), 76% (70%-81%), 69% (60%-74%) and 85% (80%-89%), respectively. CONCLUSION: PREDI-CO score can be useful to allocate resources and prioritize treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 in solid organ transplant recipients: No difference in survival compared to general population.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be associated with worse outcome in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. We performed a prospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, from March 15 to April 30, 2020, at two tertiary hospitals in Emilia-Romagna Region. SOT recipients were compared with non-SOT patients. Primary endpoint was all-cause 30-day mortality. Relationship between SOT status and mortality was investigated by univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis. Patients were assessed from COVID-19 diagnosis to death or 30-day whichever occurred first. Study cohort consisted of 885 patients, of them 24 SOT recipients (n = 22, kidney, n = 2 liver). SOT recipients were younger, had lower BMI, but higher Charlson Index. At admission they presented less frequently with fever and respiratory failure. No difference in 30-day mortality between the two groups (19% vs 22.1%) was found; however, there was a trend toward higher rate of respiratory failure (50% vs 33.1%, P = .07) in SOT recipients. Superinfections were more represented in SOT recipients, (50% vs 15.5%, P < .001). At multivariate analysis adjusted for main covariates, there was no association between SOT and 30-day mortality HR 1.15 (95% CI 0.39-3.35) P = .79. Our data suggest that mortality among COVID-19 SOT recipients is similar to general population.